The Trump-agenda - A new way of the world?

(Excerpt from the main document)

The election of Donald Trump as President of the US with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda, and his group of loyal supporters, gaining power, seem to have changed the way of the world for the time being. Trump obviously brings new challenges to the global situation. The global challenges outlined earlier in this book, however, basically also still are equally relevant. These challenges do not automatically disappear. I will try to sort things out.

I must make my analysis regarding the consequences of the Trump agenda based on proclamations from Trump himself and the Trump administration, together with the flow of news that all the time emerges in the media. What structured ideas and strategies, personal motives, populistic considerations, ulterior motives or hidden events that exist behind the veils must be left to guessing. The Trump agenda, nevertheless, manifests itself in acts and consequences that are clearly observable. It is important to consider the total effects even if the single measures and proclamations seem chaotic. It is important to consider both short-term and long-term consequences.

Threatening and creating insecurity are frequently used instruments. Just trying to swirl up as much attention as possible together with straightforward lies, fog laying, and noise creation for its own sake are other instruments often used. It is tempting to see Trump as a kind of mad clown and entertainer and focus on the comic sides of his appearance. His agenda and his relatively broad support, however, must instead be taken seriously. It is important to try to find the important stuff in chaos, sometimes with the risk of getting it wrong.

We are used to consider the neoliberal “story”, with its strong priority of the economy, to be the normal way of life particularly in the western world. Trumps agenda is in many ways the extreme version of our neoliberal “story” stripped of all attempts to give it a humanitarian look. It is also combined with ultra-conservative religious content. The uncritical applications and extensions of the neoliberal story over a span of time, as discussed in this book, however, has made Trump and his agenda possible. Such political phenomena don’t happen in a vacuum. They happen in an environment already preprepared.

The challenges to humanity previously outlined are taken to a new level with the Trump agenda:

·        The destruction of climate and nature is accelerating, cutting out all measures for coping with the challenges or those measures having some effects of moderation.

·        What is basically human is heavily challenged by a set of values that counteracts what has been achieved over time regarding basic human rights. This is combined with technological development “on drugs” without any proper governance. We are not talking about the future. The challenge is here and now. The Trump agenda now has many elements of the dystopic future described in different ways by among others George Orwell, Margaret Atwood, and Aldous Huxley.

·        Information is actively used for manipulating and destroying knowledge and truth. This is supported by the tools made available by technological development. All societal institutions supporting knowledge are counteracted. Meaningful community conversation is strongly counteracted.

·        Differences in living conditions and prospects are systematically widened both in the US and globally. Oligarch power structures have become normal.

·        The threat from mass destruction weapons becomes even more severe with an unstable situation without international law being respected and with the most powerful country actively supporting instability.

I will substantiate this further by going through the most relevant discussion points previously discussed regarding nature, values, information, economy and global governance that are most heavily influenced by the Trump agenda.

It is important to recognize the scope and omnipresence of challenges.

I will then illuminate what are the most basic contradictions to a controllable route to a better world where challenges are met by knowledge and cooperation. I will as part of this review also discuss repercussions in other countries following from the implementation of the Trump agenda.

Nature

The Trump agenda focus on an aggressive short-term exploiting of natural resources. Together with short-term economical profit motives there seems to be a more strategic goal of using control over natural resources as a means for extending the US and Trump power basis.

His agenda is working against knowledge-based protection of nature. He has withdrawn from the Paris agreement and from contribution to the work of IPPC. The results so far from the IPPC work are totally neglected. The Trump administration is stopping diverse existing internal regulations and projects for protecting climate and nature. He is reducing or stopping US research regarding climate and nature. He is also trying to influence research institutions worldwide. This is the politics of the ostrich hiding its head in the sand.

This means accelerating the general destruction of climate and nature. Tipping points get closer. Many projects are basically irreversible. Throwing knowledge-based protection of nature and climate away means removing all the brakes towards what we know will mean catastrophic development.

Values

The Trump agenda means an extreme individualism. MAGA (Make America Great Again) is a slogan for egocentricity at all levels.

The Trump agenda use active manipulation of people as a legitime measure for reaching their own goals. Human relations and thriving diverse local communities are actively counteracted.

Universal Human Rights are considered basically irrelevant. The Trump administration, however, highlight freedom of speech. Their definition of freedom of speech is the freedom to use all means for trumpeting their own agenda without accepting fact-checking.  At the same time other utterings and information channels clearly are hindered.

The Trump agenda actively counteract the most basic human rights for very many people internally by demolishing medical and social support for people needing it.

The Trump agenda support ultra-conservative Christianity very actively counteracting and suppressing diversity, equality, and inclusion.

The handling of immigrants is very brutal, and their most elementary legal rights are neglected.

Abruptly cutting development aid globally means throwing millions of people directly under the bus.

The Trump agenda is demolishing societal structures that are crucial for having democracy, preparing a route to autocratic rule. Neglecting and fighting the legal system may lead to a crisis and confrontation related the American Constitution.

The Trump agenda is deeply inhuman. It is spitting on people that are the most vulnerable ones.

Information, knowledge, communication

Truths and facts are regarded as irrelevant and are actively counteracted. Universities and education at all levels get reduced financing and diverse override.

The worst mechanisms of social media are actively amplified. Fact-checking is reduced or omitted. At the same time informational noise is actively generated. AI is an important helper for destroying knowledge-based information ecosystem and community conversation. The owners of the platforms for social media show their irresponsibility very clearly waving their tails to power.

Community conversation has very bad opportunities. Throwing knowledge and facts away is misleading people on a new magnitude of scale. Disinformation bubbles, however, also are dangerous for the administration itself and all people responsible for making decisions. A society built on “opinion” and disinformation will not be a sound and efficient society in the long run.

Economy

High tariffs against many countries, both previous friends and enemies are implemented. This war of tariffs neglects current agreements. The arguments for tariffs against different countries lack a factual basis. The Trump agenda use tariffs as a threat to obtain bilateral negotiations, being the strong party.

Cuts in public spending are also central measures. The seemingly arbitrary cuts in the public sector are justified by economic savings. The real reason is more likely to dismantle the public sector without any recognition and understanding of the real value of this sector.

Tax cuts are also central measures. Priority for billionaires is not a new phenomenon in US politics, but now it results in a kind of oligarchy where billionaires also get direct political influence in daylight open. The oligarchs align with the Trump agenda.

The Trump administration also focus on national debt. National debt is, however, being increased considerably by his overall decisions. Trump occasionally threatens to leave obligations regarding national debt.

The economic policy seems to be chaotic and basically non-rational. This is especially the case for tariff wars. If many Americans experience more problematic personal economy despite rosy election promises, this might affect the total Trump agenda heavily. In the long run it might be difficult to blame Biden for everything.

The Trump agenda might also create risks for the stability of the global economy. Some aspects are: Other countries will choose new trade partners instead of the US. Widespread consumer boycott of US products is probable. Investments in the US are considered risky.

Global production lines are complex. The Trump administration probably lacks competence for handling all this properly. The large rivals like China and the EU probably are far better prepared for a serious trade fight than the US because of competence, own internal markets, flexibility, and strategic products and resources.

Global governance

Trump openly admire autocratic leaders like Putin and is likely to align with them. Personal links to relatively few autocratic leaders is his wishful thinking.

Trump (via among others Musk) is supporting far right parties in many countries. Trying to openly influence politics in neighboring and allied countries this way is a new and dangerous trend.

We observe withdrawal from established global agreements and cooperation. Trump is seeing international relations as kinds of business cases. The economic results for the US, private interests in general and also for himself are basic considerations. He prefers bilateral conversation instead of global agreements. He is creating chaos. Trump is bullying also former allies. He is very impatient wanting quick results. This has led to a saying “Trump always chicken out” (TACO). TACO is, however, not a good description of what is going on. His impatience means he quickly tries something else when his first threats doesn’t lead to the desired quick result. 

He acts like someone that you hardly can rely on. Putting your own country before global responsibilities in all matters is a principle that is especially dangerous when used by a superpower like the US.  Global justice, international law, agreements, and cooperation is made very difficult and unpredictable. The rights and rules of the military and economic strong ones regardless of other considerations are what is considered important.

This behavior has, however, caused several interesting percussions, creating rethinking especially in Europe. Europe is going to take much more responsibility for its own security. The economic priority for increasing military budgets, however, is a reduction in crucial sectors like foreign aid and protection of nature.

NATO is rooted in the Cold War situation. Europe has a real need for better and more effective defense independent of the US. Buying more weapons is part of it, but most important is cooperation and competence at all levels. Compliance with new experience is also important. It is not about winning the last war. It is important that the armament is specific according to the goal of European security. It must not be an instrument for US global aspirations. Considering China as the rival for global hegemony versus the “free world” is the questionable “story” sold in.

Trump is using “divide and rule”. He is also very susceptible to flattering. Some leaders like Netanyahu and Putin uses this effectively. Others may also be tempted to do so. It is, however, crucial that nation-states find joint attitudes and answers to Trumps behavior and methods instead of acting alone. Such attitudes might lead to more stable international relations. There are examples showing that this is working.

Internal matters in the US have become critical. The republican party (GOP) has a very important responsibility in turning away from person cultus and the most horrible outgrowths of the Trump agenda. GOP should to some degree be able to act as a responsible political party caring for the American people and not only billionaires and narrow personal, economic, or party interests. The democratic party, being more diverse than GOP, has a job to do caring for the American people more holistically and not basically driven by traditional narrow party interests. This calls for rethinking and mobilization at a new level. Both parties, however, now are dependent on lobbying and money from the richest people and companies in the US. Both political parties are basically organized for handling elections, not for the long-term political work to be done between elections.

The MAGA agenda is making the US abilities shrink in several dimensions in the long run. Military strength, however, may not be directly influenced, but reducing the number of allies, and showing clearly that you can’t be trusted, might not be a route to real increased global power. Attempts to solve complex international conflicts without the necessary knowledge, preparations, continuity, and endurability can’t be trusted. The US is putting itself in a more vulnerable economic situation and is also putting the global economic system at risk. The US is putting itself in a bad position regarding knowledge and sound information. Putting people in important positions based on loyalty instead of competence is not supporting an effective administration. This means a less potent country altogether relatively soon. Withdrawing from most international cooperation means less global influence and less access to important new ideas. The present behavior of the Trump administration also creates anti-American feelings and actions many places. It is only military power that is left.

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I think my ideas for a route to a better world outlined in this book still are relevant even if the future road will be even longer and bumpier than it was when I first developed my ideas. I formulated the following “unthinkable thoughts”:

·        We must focus on both the global and the local level,

·        We must make structural challenges visible,

·        We must challenge mindsets hiding or distorting reality,

·        We must leave the comfort zone both as individuals and as societies,

·        We must be willing to consider alternative futures (as outlined earlier in this book).

These “unthinkable thoughts” are in the twisted Trump version:

·        Focus is not on the global level or the local level as such, but on how to unilaterally exploit global resources, no matter what the total consequences.

·        Global structures are considered from the perspective of the most powerful nations, not global needs as such.

·        The mindsets of extreme egoism and egocentricity and of hiding and distorting reality have top priority

·        The comfort zones of those in power and wealth are protected and enlarged

·        The alternative future means realizing the Trump agenda, with short-termism and without really understanding or bothering about all the long-term total consequences of it.